Sunday, 28 November 2010

The Unanswered Questions of Modern Monetary Theory #1 - Does the Economy Price adjust?

Modern Monetary Theory advances an idea that appeals to my accountant's head. It is 'stock-flow' consistent with the rules of accountancy and it sits well with the available evidence out there.

But as with all philosophies there appear to be assumptions, and practitioners of the philosophy often struggle to see them. Now this might be because the pupil (ie me) doesn't understand something, or it may be that the evidence hasn't been made clear. Hopefully it is not a logical leap of faith. This series is to get answers to questions I have yet to get resolved to my satisfaction.

My first unanswered question is one that gets to the meat of inflation.

From Money neutrality – another ideological contrivance by the conservatives which includes a good demolition of the Quantity Theory of Money.

The overwhelming evidence is that the macroeconomy quantity adjusts rather than price adjusts to nominal aggregate demand fluctuations when there is excess capacity. Otherwise firms risk losing market share.

So, when the economy is in a state of low capacity utilisation with significant stocks of idle productive resources (of all types) then it is highly unlikely that the firm will respond to a positive demand impulse by putting up prices (above the level that they were before the downturn began). They might stop offering fire sale prices but that is not what we are talking about here.

This should discourage you from automatically linking growth in the monetary base and inflation. There is no link.

So the first unanswered question is:

What 'overwhelming evidence' shows that the economy does indeed demand adjust in preference to price adjusting?

Sunday, 21 November 2010

UK - Job Shortage Rate vs Unemployment Rate, 1993 - 2010


Source: Office of National Statistics
Job Demand: Employed(MGRZ) + Unemployed (MGSC) + Inactive, want job (LFM2) + 2nd Jobs (YCBW)
Job Supply: Workforce Jobs (DYDC) + Vacancies (AP2Y)
Job Shortage: (Job Demand - Job Supply) / Job Demand
Unemployment Rate (MGSX).

Saturday, 20 November 2010

UK - National Debt compared with Base Rate 1975 to 2010



Source: Office of National Statistics
UK - National Debt (BKQK with NNBK adjustments) vs RPI-X (CDQK) 1975 - 2010 % change q on q previous year
Source: Bank of England
End quarter official Bank Rate (IUQLBEDR)

UK - National Debt compared with Inflation 1975 to 2010



Source: Office of National Statistics
UK - National Debt (BKQK with NNBK adjustments) vs RPI-X (CDQK) & RPI (CZBH) 1975 - 2010 % change q on q previous year

UK - % change in National Debt compared with GDP 1975 to 2010



Source: Office of National Statistics
UK - National Debt (BKQK with NNBK adjustments) vs GDP (IHYR) 1975 - 2010 % change q on q previous year

Sunday, 14 November 2010

How to do Ethernet Bonding on Ubuntu Properly (hotplug edition)

For those of you who have faithfully followed my guide on how to do ethernet bonding in older versions of Ubuntu and now find that it doesn't work on Karmic, Lucid etc, here's an update that works with the new upstart hotplug ethernet system and installs an 802.3ad LACP bonded pair.

  1. Install the bonding enslave programs and scripts
  2. apt-get install ifenslave-2.6
    
  3. Make sure you've removed any old bond startup file from /etc/modprobe.d. grep for bonding in there and get rid of the files. The upstart hotplug system will launch the bonding module.
     
  4. From the console edit the /etc/network/interfaces and make it look like this:
    # The loopback network interface
    auto lo
    iface lo inet loopback
    
    # The bond interface - mode 4 is 802.3ad LACP. No slaves are defined here.
    auto bond0
    iface bond0 inet dhcp
      bond-slaves none
      bond-mode 4
      bond-miimon 100
    
    # The slaves now reference the master
    auto eth0
    iface eth0 inet manual
      bond-master bond0
    
    auto eth1
    iface eth1 inet manual
      bond-master bond0
    
  5. Restart the server


There are other options of you want to use a different mode, but the difference now is that many of those options are specified on the slave stanzas rather than the master. See /usr/share/doc/ifenslave-2.6/README.Debian and /usr/share/doc/ifenslave-2.6/examples/two_hotplug_ethernet on your server for the gory details.