Sunday, 23 January 2011

Describing the Spending Cycle


It's always important to remember that the economy is a cycle like the carbon cycle, or the water cycle. Everything moves in a circle. Spending becomes income, income becomes spending.

You can start a description of the water cycle with rainfall if you wish. And it is very useful since you can show the water coming out of the clouds into rivers and rushing down to the sea. That is after all the functional part and reflects our personal experience.  We notice the rain first (and if you're British you then talk about it endlessly).

However a moment's reflection reveals an important question: how did the water get into the air in the first place? Then you realise that although the 'rainfall first' model reflects our experience of the system, the more accurate starting place in the cycle is evaporation since without that there can be no water in the air. That switch of viewpoint then leads you to realise that evaporation happens throughout the cycle due to the action of the Sun, and suddenly you have a new insight into the system.

So the system didn't change, and the 'rainfall first' description is correct as far as it goes. But by switching your focus to 'evaporation' you describe the system from a different viewpoint - which lead to a new insight that was clouded (sorry!) by the original position.

So it is the same with government expenditure in a nation. You could start with borrowing, follow it through spending and onto taxation. Then you would start using terms like 'debt' and 'deficit' and worry about whether tax levels are high enough because the numbers don't add up.

Yet if you are in a nation with a free floating exchange rate and its own non-convertible currency a moment's reflection would reveal two questions.

Firstly since the government is borrowing in its own currency, how did that currency end up in somebody else's hands so it can be borrowed?

Secondly why is the government issuing 'corporate bonds' to borrow rather than just going to its bank and asking for a loan like everybody else does?

To answer these questions simply requires that you start your description further around the spending cycle. For currency to get into the private sector the government has to spend it first. Where does that come from? A loan from the government's bank - the central bank.

So the government has a rolling loan facility at the central bank. The central bank extends the loan when requested and creates the corresponding deposit and because it is the central bank for a non-convertible sovereign currency that deposit is currency. (The central bank doesn't have to fund that loan with gold or anything else). The government then spends - hopefully on something counter-cyclical and/or advancing public purpose. The spending bounces around creating transactions and taxation. The taxation comes back to the government and reduces the size of its loan.

And fiscally that is the end of the matter. That is the cycle. Nothing else is required. The government is obviously good for the loan because, well, its the government.

However the government also decides as a matter of policy to offer higher rates of interest to long term savers in its currency. It then has an office of government issue savings deposit bonds to holders of currency who want to save. The currency retrieved from this operation reduces the government's loan at the central bank. In this way the government 'borrows' back the currency it originally spent.

It's the same system, and again the 'borrowing' description is one viewpoint. However a different viewpoint focusing on the spending first leads to fresh insights into the system and a whole load of new policy possibilities.

And once you see it, the clouds part.

3 comments:

Rajiv said...

Neil,

I think you have this a little bit wrong. Why does the government have to take a loan from the Central Bank in order to spend? Why can't it just ask the treasury to print up the currency it needs?

For an answer, see Joe Firestone's blogpost President Obama Should Use Coin Seigniorage Now!

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The media and much of the blogosphere are framing the coming debt ceiling decision, somewhen in the March to early May period, as one in which the Republican-majority House of Representatives may refuse to extend the Federal debt ceiling, forcing both a Government shut-down, and also a possible US default in paying its debt obligations to its creditors. Republicans, especially “tea-partiers,” saying they will not vote to extend the ceiling, see this as an opportunity to force spending cuts and “entitlement reform” out of the Democrats and the Obama Administration.

There is an effective response the President ought to make to the threat of a refusal to raise the debt limit, which would allow him to avoid the “forced” spending cut scenario. In fact, he ought to preempt the impending threat, right now, way before there is a Congressional vote on the debt ceiling. The basis for the preemptive move I'm referring to is given in a post by Beowulf, called “Coin Seigniorage and the Irrelevance of the Debt Limit,” and, was also discussed in a post by myself called: “Will He Say He Has No Choice or Will He Use Seigniorage?”

You should read both of these posts, if you're interested in getting into some of the details on coin seigniorage, or getting more deeply into the political context of the whole issue.

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gastro george said...

OT, but continuing my education on MMT.

1. Regarding QE - this will have little effect on the real economy as you are just exchanging one promissory note for another. All you are doing is changing asset classes. Of course this has other effects ...

2. Then I go to thinking about PFI. Really this is just a pointless exercise - unless your real target is to increase private involvement in the public sector.

Neil Wilson said...

It's not wrong. It's just a different way of looking at it. Another model if you like. A different viewpoint

What actually has to happen due to the laws of the country can often obscure the underlying operational system.