The Q4 figures are out and below are the updated sectoral balance graphs. It turns out that the Bank of England is included in 'Private Financial Institutions' for some reason and there doesn't appear to be a simple way of breaking the BoE out of the figures. If anybody has any suggestions on how to do that, I'd be glad to here them. Without that the private sector reserve position is hidden from view.
The estimates have been updated for all of 2010 now, with the Q4 figures preliminary. There appears to be very little change from Q3 to Q4 - except for a 2.25% move to non-financial corporations from private financial institutions. We shall see whether that is a 'statistical artefact' or something substantive as the revisions roll in.
Source: Office of National Statistics, tables RPZD, RPYN, RQAW, RPZT, RQCH, DJDS (Seasonally adjusted Net Lending/Borrowing per sector plus residual error) and YBHA (Gross domestic product at market prices, seasonally adjusted)
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8 comments:
Neil
Thanks for updating this.
How do the External sector flows fit in to your chart?
The External Sector is described as the 'capital account' in the graph.
Perhaps the BoE's own financial data could be used. The annual report being once-per-year doesn't help, but this might:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/other/markets/apf/quarterlyreport.htm
I suspect the lower financial surplus, and higher NF surrplus is weather related as the weather probably does not inturupt the financial sector as much as the Non Financial sector.
In the 1st Qtr 2010 (January snow?) there was a similar change to Financial sector, and the equivalent increase in Non Financial surplus we would have seen, was offset by the VAT hike in 2010.
What are your predictions of unemployment in UK Q1 2011?
It'll be different from Quarter 4 2010 :)
It would be fascinating to see historical charts, any chance of that happening?
That's as much history as there is in the ONS figures. Before 1987 there isn't the correct data - not from the ONS anyway.
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