Tuesday, 25 October 2011
UK Sectoral balances and private debt levels - Q2 2011
Q2 Figures are out.
The external sector is pretty much balanced this quarter, which means that the government sector deficit is entirely down to domestic private sector saving desires..
Interesting reduction in private non-financial savings, down to capital formation according to ONS. Are private companies really investing? Or is this just a dangerous run up in inventories?
Private debt stays at 455% of GDP overall. The amount paid off by households and private companies has been lent out again within the financial sector.
Source: Office of National Statistics, tables RPZD, RPYN, RQAW, RPZT, RQCH, DJDS (Seasonally adjusted Net Lending/Borrowing per sector plus residual error) and YBHA (Gross domestic product at market prices, seasonally adjusted). Private sector debt based on tables J8XI, NLBC, NKZA, NNQC, NNRE, NNXI, NNXM, NNWK, J8XK, NLSY, NLUA, J8XM, NJCS, and NJBQ (Lending, securites and derivatives per sector) scaled by YBHA.
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12 comments:
"Private debt stays at 455% of GDP overall. The amount paid off by households and private companies has been lent out again within the financial sector."
Surely "private debt" in your context (apologies but I can't see the charts) refers to the aggregate of net external debt for each sub-sector within the private sector, so wouldn't increased financial-to-financial lending be netted off, rather than showing up in your figures?
The figures for the final chart are the total loans obtained - as opposed to the sector to sector net.
Neil - pieces like this are a good reminder of how hard it would be for a JG to br implemented in the UK without being twisted into something altogether more cynical:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/18/aspiration-nation-youth-unemployment
I've commented on that and asked John Harris to explain why he isn't pushing the Job Guarantee.
Neil - a good piece published by Julian Wiseman of SocGen on the technicalities of why the UK can't de facto be stopped from directing the BoE to buy gilts. I'll email it to you if you're interested.
If you could that'd be great
I take it neil.wilson at 3spoken.co.uk isn't correct?
neil@ usually, but neil.wilson@ will now work.
Many thanks to everyone for the work on flow of funds. Does anyone know how to reconcile the results with the definitions used by Martin Wolf in his FT article on Nov 25th [Why cutting fiscal deficits is an assault on profits]? To quote: "In the second quarter of 2011 the government ran a fiscal deficit 9.3 per cent of gross domestic product. Counterpart surpluses were 1.6 per cent of GDP for foreigners [the inverse of the current account deficit], 1.7 per cent of GDP for households and as much as much as 6.4 per cent of GDP for corporations"
paul
You'd have to ask him which tables he's using to get those figures. I'm using the seasonally adjusted ones.
Good luck finding what you want on the ONS website. When I wrote to complain, 'kafkaesque' seemed to describe the setup accurately. They probably gave the work to staff that had failed at everything else.
Aren't Banks assets in the region of 400% of national income?
What are the figures for household and corporate assets? This wouldn't complete the picture as it's the micro net asset value and those in negative or near it net wealth who have the most acute problems.
I guess government assets aren't valued, although there are many issues with exactly how that would be done?
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