Thursday, 4 April 2013

UK Sectoral Balances and Private Debt Levels - Q4 2012

Apologies for the delay in getting these out. I've been checking the figures to make sure I've got things right. Fortunately ONS published the Economic Review for April 2013, which included a section on sectoral balances. I've adopted their approach of using a four quarter moving average.
Overall the non-government sector is saving to excess driving the government deficit - largely via the automatic stabilisers. Note the rise in the external sector balance.
The five sector chart shows that households are barely saving, and the financial sector is back to net lending - however that may be an artifact of the Post Office pension fund transfer.

And finally the private debt levels:

Private debt levels are holding around the 435% of GDP levels. The financial sector increase in debt offsetting the small decrease in non-financial sector debt.

Source: Office of National Statistics, tables RPZD, RPYN, RQAW, RPZT, RQCH, DJDS (Seasonally adjusted Net Lending/Borrowing per sector plus residual error) and YBHA (Gross domestic product at market prices, seasonally adjusted). Private sector debt based on tables J8XI, NLBC, NKZA, NNQC, NNRE, NNXI, NNXM, NNWK, J8XK, NLSY, NLUA, J8XM, NJCS, and NJBQ (Lending, securites and derivatives per sector, not seasonally adjusted) scaled by BKTL (Gross domestic product at market prices, not seasonally adjusted).